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Win rate alone means nothing. Risk:reward alone means nothing. Expectancy combines them into the one number that decides whether your trading makes money.
Your planned risk on one trade. Risk $200 with a 2R winner = +$400; a 1R loss = −$200. Thinking in R makes any two systems comparable.
Your average result per trade across wins and losses.50% win rate, 2R winners, 1R losers → +0.5R per trade.
The minimum win rate where your edge is zero: avg loss ÷ (avg win + avg loss). With 2R winners you only need to win 33.4% of the time.
Gross wins ÷ gross losses. Above 1.0 = profitable; seasoned systems often live between 1.3 and 2.0.
Building a positive-expectancy system is exactly what the Apprentice of Gains curriculum walks you through.
Educational content only — not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. Figures shown are illustrative models, not predictions or guarantees. © 2026 School of Gains.